Weekly Report - 2022/11/18: Market Analysis
1. zkSync new progress discussed on podcast
2/3 of total tokens will be reserved for ecosystem
full MIT-licensed open source (freedom to view, change, fork) FOR ALL CODE
150+ projects have already registered to deploy on zkSync 2.0
2. LlamaNodes built by DefiLlama will be released soon
3. StarkNet Token is Deployed on Ethereum https://medium.com/starkware/starknet-token-is-deployed-on-ethereum-f27f0000b00c
4. Citron research shorting $ETH
5. Fantom: envisioning a zk future
6. Data structures and design considerations
Potential Airdrop(Not Guaranteed)
We have been through a trouble time, meanwhile we are facing the history. It is not doubt that FTX has become ‘Lehman’ in Crypto industry, pertinent companies or projects are facing abundant selling pressure and credibility crisis. And, the most important thing, we are still not aware of how many ‘Big Companies’ are in the edge of collapse. The fragile market may not be able to take one more hit under this situation.
Solana Ecosystem Crisis
Fortunately, we have no exposure on FTX at this time, but we would never know what will become next bomb in the market.
Stablecoin - 2022/11/11 ～2022/11/16
1. USDT/USDC/BUSD Supply
Money still keeps out-flowing from Crypto Market and the amount has increased rapidly, this is a really bad signal for fundamental. USDT’s supply decreased a lot because the rumor said Tether had a large exposure on FTX and it could be depegged, and the fear comes. It will not be a long run trend in our opinion, USDT is still the most convenient stablecoin and the demand may be affected, but not that much.
Nearly 1.7 billion flew out of Crypto Market last week, the supply level of stablecoins has been decreased to a new bottom.
2. Stablecoin Supply in Smart Contract
That is why Ethereum gas price has kept so low in these days. Fewer people are using Defi. Bad Signal.
3. Stablecoin Exchange Net Position Change
People are losing their trust on CEX because FTX collapse, so they transfer their capital to cold wallets or on-chain wallet for more safety. That is a good move and more Web3 in our aspect.
However, on-chain stablecoins are still decreasing, combining the information both of off-chain and on-chain, it could say that the winter is still here and no hope of spring coming right now.
1. BTC/ETH CEX Balance
BTC/ETH CEX reserves dropped a lot these days, which means people are losing their trust in CEX, but it also implies that the selling pressure are decreasing.
2. Miner Reserve
Miners' are selling holdings in a moderate range compared to its one-year average.
3. ETH PoS State
ETH is deflation right now, but the increase of gas price are not because of capital refuge instead of prosper on-chain development.
MakerDAO Liquidation Status
If the current price goes down 38%, there will be large liquidations happening. With the liquidation, people are going to payback their debt and withdraw the liquidity. The worst thing is the bumping down effect, BTC/ETH are liquidated continually with a 90% price and around 800MM selling pressure are waiting for us. We will never know the bottom at that time.
The whole commits and devs focused on blockchain keeps decreasing.
We should notice that Polkadot, Manta Network, Cosmos, Near, Maskbook are more active than others, absolutely need some research on the reason.
Insights(not for investment suggestion)
1. FTX Liquidity providers/Market makers are possibly completely annihilated in this situation. The market are really lack of liquidity right now.
2. Extreme market could be possible in next weeks because it will not take too much capital for pump or dump. Futures and altcoins are more risky under this situation.
3. Not the appropriate time for joining the market, keep waiting.
Because of the explosion of FTX, if the traditional investment institutions with poor returns in the blockchain field want to further invest in the blockchain, they will face greater pressure from LPs, and it is necessary to submit more convincing reasons to customers. Therefore, it is foreseeable that the narrative logic of institutional cattle since 2020 will come to an end. New major players will appear in the market.
With the alternation of new and old players in the market, we can find potential signs from the market data.
1. The influence of traditional market institutions in the blockchain field is gradually declining. We can see that the price of GBTC of Grayscale-dominated ETFs is seriously inverted against BTC, and the negative premium of GBTC to BTC is 42.7%.
2. The migration trend of users from CEX to DEX is obvious, especially in the field of lending. Uniswap daily active users increased from about 20,000 to 50,000 from May to November; AAVE daily active users increased from about 2,000 to 7,000. This is growth that is hard to ignore. The scheme of separating asset custody and order books on the dydx chain is also becoming a consideration of CEX.
3. The signs of the bottom of the bear market are beginning to appear, and BTC has entered the historical value investing range. Although FTX’s thunderstorm had a big impact on market liquidity, especially on the influential market makers, leverage has been fully released on 519, and FTX is nothing more than a continuation or full stop of the impact of 519. The real bottom begins to appear as liquidity decreases further.
4. Since the beginning of this year, the anti-inflation macro market trading logic has begun to change as inflation peaks. Stopping raising interest rates and lowering interest rates based on maintaining growth, or even starting a new round of monetary easing will become a new trading theme in the market.
5. After the Ethereum merge, the miners' continuous selling pressure on Ethereum disappeared and turned into deflation. It did not break through its new low in May like BTC, which also injected confidence in the future development direction for market developers and practitioners.
1. Market judgment: maintain early view, short-term rebound mainly, after encountering major resistance to return to the downward trend.
2. Position suggestion: maintain high selling, low buying.
1. Altcoins: catching the falling knifes, traders set the buying price
2. Automatic investment plan Starts.