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2022-11-25 Weekly Report

Whats NEW

1. The Cost of Resilience|Flashbots(tradeoff between maximizing MEV extraction and maximizing censorship resistance)

https://writings.flashbots.net/the-cost-of-resilience/

2. Krafton’s Long-Term Strategy

https://naavik.co/digest/krafton-long-term-strategy

3. Genesis Trading Warns of Possible Bankruptcy as Post-FTX Fundraising Falters: Report

https://twitter.com/decryptmedia/status/1594818187962589187

4. The Diamond Standard (EIP-2535) Explained: Part 1

https://quicknode.com/guides/smart-contract-development/the-diamond-standard-eip-2535-explained-part-1

Potential Airdrop(Not Guaranteed)


Market Info

1. GBTC discount to NAV is closing in on -50%

Some insiders said that ‘DCG owes $1.1B to Genesis via a previously undisclosed promissory note that has been hidden from potential investors.’ https://twitter.com/AP_ArchPublic/status/1594386225200234496

2. A whale loaned millions $CRV on AAVE v2 to short $CRV, then caused wild price fluctuations of $CRV

https://twitter.com/Rewkang/status/1595025224583770114

Stablecoin - 2022/10/25 ~2022/11/23

1. USDT/USDC/BUSD Supply - Total Supply 138.12 Bn(all stablecoins)





Money still keeps out-flowing from Crypto Market and the amount has increased rapidly, this is a really bad signal for fundamental. USDT’s supply decreased a lot because the rumor said Tether had a large exposure on FTX and it could be depegged, and the fear comes. It will not be a long run trend in our opinion, USDT is still the most convenient stablecoin and the demand may be affected, but not that much. Nearly 1.3 billion flew out of Crypto Market last week, the supply level of stablecoins has been decreased to a new bottom.


2. Stablecoin Supply in Smart Contract


That is why Ethereum gas price has kept so low in these days. Fewer people are using Defi. Bad Signal.


3. Stablecoin CEX Net Position Change




People are losing their trust on CEX because of FTX collapse, so they transfer their capital to cold wallets or on-chain wallets for more safety(Bo Shen’s example may illustrate on-chain wallets are not that safe either). That is still a good move and more Web3 in our aspect. However, on-chain stablecoins are still decreasing, combining the information both of off-chain and on-chain, it could say that the winter is still here and no hope of spring coming right now.


BTC/ETH

1. BTC/ETH CEX Balance



BTC/ETH CEX reserves dropped a lot these days, which means people are losing their trust in CEX, but it also implies that the selling pressure are decreasing. 2. BTC Miner Reserve


Miners' are selling holdings in a moderate range compared to its one-year average. Miners kept selling their new mined BTC and have no willing to increase their storage, which is a bad signal.


3. ETH PoS State


ETH is deflation right now, but the increase of gas price are not because of capital refuge instead of prosper on-chain development. Last week, ETH supply started to grow because everyone is cautious about the market and does not want to do the first move.


On-Chain Activity

MakerDAO Liquidation Status

The liquidation risk is kind of far from us right now. ONLY IF the current price goes down 40%, there will be large liquidations happening. With the liquidation, people are going to payback their debt and withdraw the liquidity, or got busted. The worst thing will be the bumping down effect, BTC/ETH are liquidated continually with 90% price and around 800MM selling pressure are waiting for us. We will never know the bottom at that time.


DeFi Development



The whole commits and devs focused on blockchain keeps decreasing. We should notice that Polkadot, Truffle(last week was Manta Network), Cosmos, Near, are more active than others, absolutely need some research on the reason.


Bridge



Insights(not for investment suggestion)

Daniel

  1. FTX Liquidity providers/Market makers are possibly completely annihilated in this situation. The market are really lack of liquidity right now.

  2. Extreme market could be possible in next weeks because it will not take too much capital for pump or dump. Futures and altcoins are more risky under this situation.

  3. Not the appropriate time for joining the market, keep waiting.

Jack

  1. ETH is strong at 1,000, then the FTX hacker will sell the stolen ETH

  2. There are too much unstable stuff in the market, just keep watching and find the opportunity.

Traders Due to the rapid rebound within the week, the short-term market is more focused on recovery, so the short-term view is volatile and rebounded. After the rebound is blocked, it is still expected to test the support strength below. Position suggestion: selling high and buy cheap chips. Czhang

  1. Altcoins: catching the falling knifes at the NEW Price, traders set the buying price

  2. Automatic investment plan Starts.

  3. Don’t short


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